Bloomberg.com: Dead heat

Bloomberg.com has the race as a dead heat. I am encouraged that:

1)Kerry appears to be leading (by the slimmest of margins, but leading) in most of the battleground states.

2)The vast majority of those states voted against Bush in 2000.

3)Bush's approval rating as Predident is under 50% (47%) ---usually a sign that the incumbent will not be re-elected.

4)Historically, challengers usually win the late committing undecided vote.

5)Finally, it seems likely that the polls are not polling younger voters. The polls usually poll registered voters who have land lines. Younger voters usually are late registering and our culture has evolved to a point where many Americans in their late teens and early 20's do not even HAVE land lines, chosing instead to go with portable phones. Younger voters tend to vote democrat, but usually not in very large numbers. It is possible that there could be a 1% or more push generated by these youngsters---that may be enough to nail it down for Kerry.

...If the economy doesn't get manipulated.